Iran threatens military coups?

Although wearing scarf in Tehran is mandatory, women in the country protest in protest in early February. A few dozen women were arrested from this protest. At the end of the same month, police clashed with police suppressed Sufi ideologists. At least five people were killed.

At the end of March, Arab tribes were excluded from Iran’s ethnic diversity at a ceremony in a television channel in the country. In response to this, ethnic minority Arabs protested in Khojsetan province.

In the month of April (April), the security forces in the Isfahan provinces are facing severe water crisis in protesters. Workers’ strike continues in different cities in the country. In addition to these protests, the Islamic Republic of Iran faces a wide variety of socio-economic, political crisis, including rising inflation, severe drought and military involvement in Syria.

At the same time, the government of the country could not solve any of these problems. There is a possibility of a coup against the country’s current government in these tensions. The government’s tenure will expire in 2021 Meanwhile, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei can not obey the revolutionary guards of the country; Some of the facts are clear.

The government is losing political capital

However, the political elite of Iran has reached a consensus on the issue that these solutions can be resolved only through the reform of fundamentalist rules. But the prospect of reform is quite small. Because it can be a major obstacle to Iran’s dual political system.

The country’s president and other elected bodies including parliament are unable to make any significant changes. Because their power is structurally limited. At the same time, the country’s top leaders, judiciary and other non-elected organizations, including security forces, enjoy wide political advantage. These unelected firms think that due to the inefficiency of the government, the crisis has now been created.

Iran after protest protests
If reforms in the existing system can weaken the base of the country’s top leader. Since 1989, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been elected as the country’s supreme leader since his election; Due to ideological differences, he has seen bitter relations with many of them.

He has shown great desire to maintain exclusive power and status quo. There is a general belief among Iranian observers that it is impossible to reform or change the country until Ayatullah Ali Khamenei is in power. Apart from the political differences, there was a wide difference between Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani and the supreme leader.

In 2013, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei received Ruhani as the acceptable candidate for the country’s president. Because there was a need for moderate political leaders to reach agreement with the West in the issue of Iran’s nuclear program and to avoid the ban.

But political instability has started in the country. But if the US goes out of the nuclear deal, it will be harmful to the Iranian government. Washington may impose new sanctions on Tehran As a result, the risk that the government will lose credibility within the country can not be blamed.

Besides, Rouhani is gradually losing popularity to those who are expecting fruitful changes in the country. Due to its new liberal economic policy, the poor and low-middle class people of Iran have already been affected.

But if the situation is worse and the risks of being in power are ruled out, at any time, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei can oust President Rouhani from power.

Iranian hardliners believe that only self-reliance and resistance to Iran’s problems and the power imposed by the West can only be solved. Ayatollah Khamenei can make the best decision at the moment, overthrow of moderates from power and rehabilitation of hardliners.

The change in Iran’s revolutionary guards and the concept of the military president

Ayatollah Khamenei, as the head of the military, controls all types of armed forces including the Revolutionary Guard Force (IRGC), Volunteer Militia Basis and the army. IRGC and Besi special loyal to the country’s highest leader.

Since taking charge in 1989, he has invested heavily behind the two forces. There have been some unusual changes recently under the leadership of these organizations. From which it is clear that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is preparing IRGC for a possible mission.

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In early March, Hashem al-Islam Ali Saidi has been appointed as the representative of Khamenei in the Armed Forces of Iran; Who is also in charge of IRGC as Khamenei’s representative. This representative does not only serve as the eyes and ears of the highest leader; Rather he forced the army officers to obey the order and assured blind obedience to the supreme leader.

All the ideological and political organizations and sections of the armed forces of the Iranian armed forces will also control the newly appointed saddi. His sub-assistant Abdullah Haji Sadegi in IRGC is a fundamentalist leader and devoted loyalist of the highest leader. He is also performing his duties.

In March, General Yadolah Javanese was appointed as IRGC’s political deputy chief. Khamenei, one of the loyal officials, has previously served as the advisor to Syed. In 2009, Saidi and Javani played a major role in the mass movement called Green Movement.

These appointments mean that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is strengthening his political position on the Iranian military. Khamenei is very loyal to his military if necessary to take action.

For the two scenarios, he is apparently preparing for the IRGC. Firstly, if the crisis is severely affected then IRGC will be able to overthrow Rouhani with power. Secondly, if the situation is stable, then Rouhani will get the chance to finish his term, and later IRGC will bring a military president to power in the country.

Over the last few months, a significant number of hardliners in the country have started talking about how a military-backed president can solve the internal and regional problems of the country. Many have recommended Kashem Suleimani as president and the head of IRGP as well. Earlier in 2016, he canceled the buzz in Iran’s presidential election. But a recent opinion polls show that he is more popular with Iranians than Rouhani.

The purpose of this discussion on the possibilities of the military president’s power will not be the opinion of the people, but its aim is to break that kind of prejudice among Iranians.

Although it is impossible to predict about the decision of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Even then, in the coming days, Iran’s internal and global crisis will be deeper, and it is quite understandable. The Supreme Leader, who may force Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to take action against the government.

The article by Syed Golakar, lecturer of the Department of Political Science of the University of Tennessa, Aljazeera.